Consumption, pre-personal money transfers, and (in April) production and sales in the commercial sector.
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) from CES (blue), employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bright green), trade and sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP, 3rd release (green bars) , all logs are normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 advance release, S&P Global Market Insights (probably Macroeconomic Advisors, IHS Markit) (5/1/2024), and author’s calculations.
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