Israel Threatens to Capture Hezbollah After Cross-Border Attack Produces Heavy Wildfire

June 5, 2024 admin Finance 0

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu recently visited the northern border area with Israel and vowed to “take drastic measures” against Hezbollah, as reported in leading stories in the Jerusalem Post and the Times of Israel. In what some may consider a strange coincidence, the announcement came on the same day that the Syrian who opened fire on the US embassy in Beirut was injured in the fire and arrested by the Lebanese army.

Back to the main event. We also covered Alastair Crooke a few months ago explaining how Israel has made a political commitment to end Hezbollah attacks on the border area with Lebanon, which has led to mass exodus, with reports ranging from 60,000 to 100,000. It was not well integrated that Hezbollah has been carrying out these attacks to create a second mini-front in the war in Gaza (as if Israel will enter into an agreement with the Palestinians, the attacks will be returned to their previous level of trouble) and that Israel has been shooting in southern Lebanon, making life miserable for the people who live on its border.

The expulsion of these immigrants from Israel has been a gnawing economic and political wound. Existing businesses are closing. Israel provides temporary housing. These settlers say they cannot/will not go back until Hezbollah is removed from the border, which Israel takes to mean that Hezbollah must withdraw or be forced to retreat to the Litani River. Remember, Israel didn’t get that far in its failed 2006 war with Lebanon.1 By all accounts, Hezbollah is stronger than it was then and Israel is weaker.2 Hezbollah leader Hassam Nasrallah said that Lebanon will not give Israel one centimeter of land.

So we have a little trade-off.

And, after Crooke first warned that Israel was committed to attacking Lebanon so that the lives of its residents could be restored, defense minister Benny Gantz began to panic that Israel would force Lebanon out of its borders if necessary. From the Times of Israel in December:

Defense Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz on Friday warned that Israel will be forced to push the terrorist group Hezbollah away from the Lebanese border if the international community cannot do so through diplomatic channels.

Note that the US and Israeli negotiating position says that Lebanon should give up its border areas because they say so, another part of foreign trade.

However, despite Israeli settlers remaining vocal, not much has happened to advance their cause to this day. One of the reasons is that the IDF is trapped in Gaza. That underscores the second problem, the IDF has done far less against Hamas than officials had expected.

But the third and biggest problem is that Israel is likely to lose and lose more against Hezbollah than in 2006. As both Scott Ritter and Crooke have explained, Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas are all planning to fight Israel and the US. Both wage wars in the same way: airpower combat, with the plan/preference being to escalate intense, large-scale, but relatively short-lived conflicts. So all three forces created deep and wide tunnel networks to be beyond Israel and US fire. They also discovered how to be effective with many cheap weapons. Crooke insists they are willing to fight a war of attrition, something neither the US nor Israel can handle well. and dialing up and down the intensity of conversations.

So if the failure to return the settlers of the border town to their homes is a growing wound, why hasn’t Israel acted? I don’t know, but some commentators have suggested that the wisest heads in Israel, especially in the IDF, have warned that war with Lebanon would be a very bad idea. The only reason Hezbollah doesn’t accept it is that Lebanon is an economic basket case. A war, even a relatively short one in which Hezbollah won, will still produce high costs in terms of casualties.

What about the hope that the US will come to the aid of Israel if Lebanon looks like it is winning? Many in Israel desperately want the US to get involved militarily. The fact that Israel has not (yet) grown up with Lebanon suggests that they are skeptical that the US can intervene forcefully and effectively. The US has not been able to check the Houthis. The US has run out of weapons in the war in Ukraine. Hezbollah’s lines are reportedly shorter than those of Hamas. They also have many rockets and missiles as well, some of which are very sophisticated.

With that top-notch image, things get hot because they’re hot, literally. The last set of Hezbollah barrages set off wildfires in northern Israel. Israeli and Western accounts show this rise as being initiated by Hezbollah, although that is not clear:

Human Rights Watch confirmed the use of white phosphorus after the October 7 attack in South Lebanon (but not the allegations of new attacks)

The fires caused by Hezbollah strikes are intense:

So the government feels compelled to do something. First from the Times of Israel:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Wednesday that Israel is prepared for an “extremely strong” response to Hezbollah’s attacks in Lebanon, which have escalated in recent days.

“Anyone who thinks they can harm us and we will remain in our hands is very mistaken,” Netanyahu said during a visit to the northern city of Kiryat Shmona, which has been evacuated since the Lebanon-based terrorist group began attacking Israeli communities again. military posts on the border almost every day on October 8….

The prime minister visited the site hours after firefighters confirmed they had brought under control a series of large blazes in northern Israel caused by rocket attacks and Hezbollah drones, following 48 hours of efforts to put out the fires….

Earlier on Wednesday, the government increased the number of troops the IDF is authorized to call in from 300,000 to 350,000, although military sources told The Times of Israel that the move was related to the expansion of operations in the Gaza Strip, not in the north. before.

The IDF said the number was increased due to ongoing operations in the southernmost Gaza city of Rafah, which has taken more workers than originally planned.

And from the Financial Times:

Israeli leaders have threatened to take “severe measures” against Hizbollah after the cross-border firestorm, heightened tensions and the prospect of an all-out war with the Lebanese terror group.

Visiting the northern Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona on Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke about the fires that have broken out in a large part of the region in the past two days, mainly the result of Hizbollah rockets and drone attacks…

“We are prepared to take drastic measures in the north. In some way, we will restore security in the north,” he said [Netanyahu] added.

The long-serving Israeli leader’s comments come after Israel’s army chief, Herzi Halevi, warned that a “decision point” is fast approaching on whether to launch an attack on Lebanon….

In recent weeks Hezbollah and Israel have increased the frequency and scope of their strikes. Local leaders and residents in northern Israel are outraged by the Israeli government’s failure to restore security and return people to their homes, and have criticized the lack of a time frame for resolving the crisis.

Hizbollah officials said they do not want to inflame tensions within Israel, but will not stop the strikes as long as the conflict in Gaza continues…

Pressure is mounting on the Israeli government to act forcefully against Hizbollah. Nightly apocalyptic images of burning forests have only added to the public’s distress over the loss of security in the north.

Israel is clearly stretched but feels compelled to make a strong response. Uber hardliner Ben-Gvir wants war against Hezbollah. But what can Israel do so that it does not end up defeating itself? Stay tuned.

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1 As I heard from one of the YouTube users commenting on the 2006 conflict, Israeli soldiers arrived at Litani long enough to raise the flag, take a picture, and run away.

2 I base this on Scott Ritter, who worked extensively with the IDF in the 1990s. He had a lot of respect for what they were at that time. His take from there (my words) is that the IDF later both loves its myth and is ready to break the arms of Palestinian children.




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