A wonderful NFP hire.
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) from CES (blue), employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bright green), trade and sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (green bars), all log normalized to to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 second release, S&P Global Market Insights (with Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (6/1/2024), and author’s calculations.
As noted in previous posts, put almost all of the weight in the CES series, on assessing business cycle dynamics.
Here is a series of different jobs:
Figure 2: NFP employment (blue), Philadelphia Fed preliminary benchmark (tan), CPS series adjusted for NFP assumption (green), Business Employment Dynamics mean employment based on 2019Q4 NFP level (red), and aggregate hours (red), all seasonally adjusted, Wood 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, via FRED, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
I would underestimate the adjusted CPS series, given the population control issues. The Business Employment Dynamics series offers a pause, even if the Philly Fed’s preliminary benchmark suggests continued growth, through December.
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