DWD released employment numbers for May on Thursday (h/t James):
Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (black), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark series (teal), Wisconsin May Economic Outlook forecast (red), all in 000’s, from Source: DWD, Philadelphia Fed, WI DoR.
We are targeting nonfarm payrolls in line with the May ’24 forecast, according to the DWD/BLS. The first benchmark of the Philadelphia Fed is slightly below the official (0.4%, 11,500) in April, considering the actual benchmark (as opposed to the extended forecast) continues in December (0.3%, 7900).
For private non-farm leases, there is no early appraisal. However, I can use the (periodically adjusted) changes in net job gains from Business Employment Dynamics to compare with the quarterly confidential NFP.
Figure 2: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll Employment (black), Cumulative Business Employment Dynamics net job gains multiplied by 2022Q3 (blue), Wisconsin May Economic Outlook forecast (red), all in 000’s, from 2024Q2 private NFP estimate for April and May. Source: DWD, BLS, WI DoR.
Finally, in a series of (imprecisely measured) household surveys based on employment, the actual is below the forecast by 0.3%.
Figure 3: Wisconsin employment (black), Wisconsin May Economic Outlook (red), all in 000’s, from Source: DWD, WI DoR.
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