The Bloomberg consensus is 4%. This means that it is close to the Sahm’s Law trigger (in real time):
Figure 1: Real-time Sahm rule (blue), and consensus based on Bloomberg as of 7/4/2024 (tan square). Source: FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
If the unemployment rate reaches 4.1%, Sahm’s law will indicate a recession. If a deal is reached in June, and the unemployment rate stays the same until July then we will reach the threshold.
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