From DWD today:
Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), first Philadelphia Fed benchmark series (pink), Wisconsin May Economic Outlook forecast (gray), all in 000’s, from Source: DWD, Philadelphia Fed, WI DoR.
Figure 2: Wisconsin employment (black), Wisconsin May Economic Outlook (red), all in 000’s, from Source: DWD, WI DoR.
In the CES employment count (which is more reliable than the domestic, state-level CPS count), employment exceeded the DoR’s forecast for June.
Below, I show the latest data on Wisconsin’s macro aggregates.
Figure 3: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (blue), Philadelphia Fed preliminary NFP benchmark estimate (pink), Public Employment (tan), real wages and wages deflated by national CPI bound (sky blue), GDP ( red), coincident index (green) , all in log 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed [1], [2]and the author’s calculations.
So, by most accounts, Wisconsin’s economy on an aggregate level is doing well. However, recent accounts by journalists focus on the grim situation (Niquette/Bloomberg):
…a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll this month found 62% of Wisconsin voters think the state’s economy is headed in the wrong direction, while 72% think the US economy is headed in the wrong direction.
On the other hand, the modal response to the state of the economy seems to be rated as “good”. From the Marquette Law School survey, June 12-20:
Figure 4: Percentage of voters who responded to the question “How would you describe the state of Wisconsin’s economy these days?” Source: Marquette Law School Poll.
There is a split on this point, however.
Figure 5: Percentage of voters responding to the question “How would you describe the state of Wisconsin’s economy these days?”, by party. Source: Marquette Law School Poll.
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