Tyler,
Your point about the easy downgrade in other countries goes much further than what you wrote about. In the US we have already reduced the use of coal significantly so electricity generation accounts for about a quarter of our greenhouse gas emissions. Electricity production accounts for half of the emissions in countries like China. Many countries have never installed their first battery system, so there is very low-hanging fruit. And for many reasons the installed cost of solar is much lower overseas than in the US so every dollar goes further. In general the US would be better off with deregulation (eliminating tariffs, simplifying tax credits, etc.) rather than adding more subsidies. I think it would be a huge benefit to the industry if all the subsidies went away but there was also significant deregulation.
As you point out, it’s hard to move the needle in transportation because the investment required is much greater than in the electricity sector with about the same amount of emissions left to reduce. There are sub-sectors such as trucks and commercial vehicles that could move very quickly, but it’s also probably better to spend effort making it easier to install high-voltage chargers than directly subsidizing them. Companies can and do calculate the toThe total cost of ownership of their vehicles and the next generation of EVs and commercial trucks will be green without the subsidies for many applications. Some high-potential policy/technology pairings in the transportation space are rapidly enabling autonomous EVs as they become available.
The industry can also change quickly if other programs are in the money. Systems must be cheap and scalable which requires improving technology and getting solar panel prices closer to the global average (currently prices are 2x-3x higher in the US).
Austin
Here is the Austin Vernon Substack.
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