Here is a snapshot of some key indicators tracked by the NBER BCDC, along with monthly GDP:
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) from CES (blue), employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bright green), trade and sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (green bars), all log normalized to to 2023M04=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 advance release, S&P Global Market Insights (probably Macroeconomic Advisors, IHS Markit) (8/1/2024), and author’s calculations.
With good (albeit slow) employment growth, it is hard to believe that the recession started in July, even considering the fact that the Sahm law index broke the 0.50 threshold (at 0.50 ppts). If the calculations are carried to three significant digits (two decimal places), the indicator using the current data reads 0.49 ppts.
The first monthly NFP we have is in July. Lewis/Mertens/Stock NY Fed WEI read 1.95% with data released for the week ending 7/27. The corresponding Baumeister/Leiva-Leon/Sims WECI reads 0.15, which means – if the trend growth is 2% – a growth rate of 2.15%.
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