Top Recession Indicators | Econbrowser

Weekly Lewis/Mertens/Stock and Baumeister/Leiva-Leon/Sims indexes, plus Torsten Slok index.

Figure 1: Lewis/Mertens/Stock Weekly Economic Index (blue), and Baumeister/Leiva-Leon/Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for US and 2% trend (tan), all growth rate y/y in %. Source: NY Fed via FRED, WECI, accessed 8/10/2024, and author’s calculations.

Growth in both directions is about the trend.

Here’s what this series looked like around the time of the 2008 recession (note that these are current versions, not real-time versions):

Figure 2: Lewis/Mertens/Stock Weekly Economic Index (blue), and Baumeister/Leiva-Leon/Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for US and 2% trend (tan), all growth rate y/y in %. Source: NY Fed via FRED, WECI, accessed 8/10/2024, and author’s calculations.

So, in comparison, it doesn’t look like much of a drop in the data available since 8/3.

As promised, here is Torsten’s summary of the Daily and Weekly Indicators of the US Economy chartbook (released today):

This entry was posted in with Menzies Chinn.


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