This is the subject of my latest column for Bloomberg, and here is one excerpt:
What do the numbers show? A new study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City provides important keys to the answer.
Start with the good news, or what appears to be good news. After legalization, incomes in legal states grew by about 3%, home values rose by 6%, and population increased by about 2%. The researchers used appropriate statistical controls, but there is some question about causation versus correlation. At the very least, it seems likely that the country’s GDP will increase: A state with legal marijuana can sell it, including users in other states. Selling marijuana is a new business, and like any new business, it boosts the local economy.
But it’s not that easy. GDP and GDP per capita ratios are often good metrics for human well-being – but not always. The sale of cigarettes, for example, does not benefit citizens as much as the increase in GDP would indicate, because nicotine is not good for many people…
In states with legal marijuana, self-reported use increased by 28%. During that time, substance use disorders increased by 17%. Chronic homelessness is up 35 percent, which could be a sign that marijuana use is leading to financial collapse, and possibly job loss, for many users. Arrests increased by 13%, although reported crimes did not.
And for the prices:
That said, these results are hardly a good advertisement for a legitimate test. They are a stark contrast to what the promoters had promised: the end of black markets, safer cannabis and a better protected user base. And if I may be allowed to think a bit like an economist for a moment, I admit that I don’t feel good about the social habit that lowers functional IQ. No one smokes pot to do better on their SATs.
I am always of two minds on every question.
It is worth pondering.
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