Continuous growth:
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), August Survey of Professional Forecasters (bold red), July WSJ (teal), 8/8 GDPNow (blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2024Q2 advance, WSJ survey, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.
The NY Fed nowcast for Q3 is slightly lower (2.24% vs. 2.9%).
The survey shows 16% and 21% chances of a negative quarter in 2024Q3 and 2024Q4 respectively. From 1967-2024 to the present, the quarter experiencing negative growth is about 14%.
As noted here, there are only two people in the area WSJ The July survey revealed two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
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