I, interviewed Buzz Kemper, on BadgerTalks, taped 8/6 (Episode 44).
Some of the numbers I was thinking of:
NBER estimates for 2024M03:
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) from CES (blue), employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bright green), trade and sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (green bars), all log normalized to to 2023M04=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 advance release, S&P Global Market Insights (probably Macroeconomic Advisors, IHS Markit) (8/1/2024), and author’s calculations.
And other references are common to the same date:
Figure 2: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) Philadelphia Fed preliminary benchmark employment (blue), NFP-adjusted employment (orange), manufacturing output (red), retail sales (black), vehicle miles traveled (blue), and -Coincident Index (light pink), GDO (blue bars), all logs are normalized to 2023M04=0. The GDI used in calculating 2024Q2 GDO is estimated by forecasting the total 2024Q2 operating surplus using GDP, lagged surplus, residual differential surplus, 2021Q1-2024Q1. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 advance releaseand the author’s calculations.
And about Wisconsin’s economy:
Figure 3: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (blue), Philadelphia Fed first benchmark NFP estimate (pink), Public Employment (tan), real wages and wages deflated by national CPI bound (sky blue), GDP ( red), coincident index (green) , all in log 2021M11=0. Lilac shading denotes 6 months after the WMC winter study. Source: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed [1], [2]and the author’s calculations.
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