In a recent blog post by Don Boudreaux at Cafe Hayek pointing out (for the millionth time) that America is not deindustrializing, Jayson Ramos responded to a comment from me saying: “Like that [sic] is something Mr. King do you have to believe? You and Dr. Boudreaux—or “his lying eyes”?”
This is a typical “gotcha” style question intended to imply that subject matter experts are out of touch and/or making things up. However, a good scientist knows that the eyes do not lie, but rather they are simple one a tool for understanding. Our eyes provide us with important (visual) information. But what invisible it is also very important.
A simple example to illustrate my point: my eyes look out my office window showing a beautiful sunny day. Thunderstorms are coming in the distance, but will likely move south. Nice day for a walk, no?
But my weather system, which pulls data from the National Weather Service in New Orleans, says otherwise. Although it is not yet 9am, we have an actual temperature of 104°. It says the air is very humid and breathing can be difficult, especially for people like me who have asthma. They also said that we could get thunderstorms later. So, who am I to believe? Are my eyes lying or the senses of the weather in New Orleans?
It turns out: the wise men were right. As soon as I went outside to take out the trash, I was hit by the heat and humidity. Even though the trash sign was 100 meters away, I got in my car and went to it. And, since it’s getting dark as I write this, they may be right about the storm, too.
Were my eyes lying to me? No: they told me the truth. The sun it was outside. I saw the storm he did go south. But another storm is coming from the north (I don’t have north facing windows). My eyes see the truth, but only one part of it. NWS saw more and gave me more details. What was invisible to me it was as important as it was we have seen.
For US manufacturing, it’s the same. It’s easy to see the Rust Belt- to see many of the once great cities on the ground. When I lived in Syracuse, New York, it was sad to see such beautiful facades in disrepair, to see so much poverty in a once bright city. No one denies that similar issues are playing out in cities around the US. But there are also cities being replaced by new construction in Tennessee, Massachusetts, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Carolinas. Actually, US construction money is as high as the data recorded (2002). The recent jump is due to subsidies and incentives from the Deflation Act, but note that spending has generally been on an upward trend since 2011. Even in those old Rust Belt towns, new life is being born: art galleries, brewpubs, museums, and everything. types of other developments are moving to old factories.
Science teaches us to search for the unseen. Science teaches us to use all our senses jointly logic and reason for making conclusions and opinions. Seeing is an important concept, but it is veiled. The goal of education is to help sharpen our other senses so that we can pierce that veil. It is a poor scientist who relies only on observations; as we see with Mr. Korol, it leads to wrong conclusions about the state of the US economy and US manufacturing.
Jon Murphy is an assistant professor of economics at Nicholls State University.
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