Productivity in a Recession? | Econbrowser

The first revision of the benchmark showed March hiring down 0.9%. Here is a picture of the various series associated with the manufacturing sector.

Figure 1: Manufacturing output (blue, left scale), employment implied from the first benchmark (tan, left scale), aggregate hours (green, left scale), and real value added (red), all in log, 2007M12=0, and production capacity , in % (black, right scale). The NBER has defined recession days as shaded in gray. Note: 2007M12 is the peak of the NBER business cycle. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BLS, BEA via FRED, NBER.

With employment and production flat (but below end-2023 peaks), I would be hard-pressed to say that production is at a peak, but here a recession is in the eye of the beholder (if there is no technical definition of recession in the sub-category. ).

Note that GS believes the aggregate (NFP) benchmark revision of -818K is too large; rather, they believe that given less than full QCEW coverage and potential revisions, the combined revisions are equal to -300K. This would suggest a slight downward revision of manufacturing activities.

This entry was posted in with Menzies Chinn.


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