Revised up to 0.2 ppts, 0.2 ppts above consensus. Final sales are up to 0.2 ppts. GDO up 2.1% q/q SAAR.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDO (tan), and GDP+ (green), GDPNow for 8/26 (blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDP, GDO based on secondary output. GDP+ is multiplied by the 2019Q4 GDP level. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed (July release), Atlanta Fed, author’s calculations.
Figure 2: Quarter-on-Quarter GDP growth (bold black), GDPNow for 8/26 (blue square), final sales (red), all from SAAR. GDP based on secondary output. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, author’s calculations.
So, GDP and final sales growth is above trend in Q2, and GDPNow from 3 days ago is trending. GDP > final sales means some layoffs in Q3 given inventory build-up.
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