July was down, and we won’t have August numbers until September 20th (probably a day earlier from DWD). Using formal non-farm payrolls across the state, employment in Wisconsin is growing.
Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), forecast based on US NFP (red) and +/- 1 standard error band (gray lines), and Treasury Department forecast for May 2024 (light blue lines), all in 000’s, sa Forecast based on separate initial hiring for Wisconsin and US, 2021M07-2024M06, dynamically forecasted. The vertical axis is on a log scale. Source: BLS, DoR (May), and author’s statistics.
Interestingly, this finding suggests that the July (preceding) employment figure will be revised upwards, although it will decrease significantly (the vertical axis is on a log scale so one can read the flat slope as a decrease in percentage growth).
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