From the CPI release:
Figure 1: CPI – food at home (blue), ERS forecast from January (red triangle), ERS forecast from August (light blue square), chained CPI – food at home (light green ), all normalized to 2020M01=1.00. Food chained at home is part of the CPI that is updated periodically by the author using X-13 (in logs). Source: BLS, USDA ERS, and author’s statistics.
Note that household food prices are actually at January 2024 levels, regardless of whether to use the official CPI, or the chained CPI. Given the August rates, the ERS August forecast (based on pre-August release data) suggests a slight decline in the remaining months. However, as the forecast period is 0.4% to 2.0% (on a y/y point forecast of 1.2%), price increases are more likely in the remainder of the year.
How prices fare in the Midwest, in comparison. Using the city size category B/C, I get the following image.
Figure 2: CPI – nationwide household consumption (blue), Midwest household consumption (B/C cities) (brown), all normalized to 2020M01=1.00. The Midwest domestic CPI component is seasonally adjusted by the author using X-13 (for logs). Source: BLS, USDA ERS, and author’s calculations.
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