It goes up:
Figure 1: Average real wages for manufacturing and non-supervisory workers, CPI deflated (blue), CPI chained (tan), both in 2023$. Chained CPI is periodically edited by the author using X-13 (in logs). Source: BLS via FRED and author’s statistics.
It’s worth asking what’s going on with the average wage. I don’t have the rankings, but I do have the average year-over-year growth from the Atlanta Fed. Using this data, I find the following about average wage growth:
Figure 2: Average annual wage growth, adjusted for CPI (blue). Average salary growth is 3 months moving within the previous 12 months. Source: Atlanta Fed via FRED (series FRBATLWGT3MMAUMHWGO), BLS, and author’s statistics.
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