With GDP, there is no recession in the short term:
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), FT-Booth September median forecast (blue box), NY Fed nowcast (red triangles), SPF August (tan line), WSJ July (green light), in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2024Q2 advance, FT-Booth September survey, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, WSJ, and author’s calculations.
There was an upward trend in the GDP level of the FT-Booth survey (implied q4/q4 2024 growth increased from 2.0% in the June survey to 2.3% in September). Given previous Q2 growth, this means 2.4% in 2024H2 (SAAR).
Figure 2: GDP (bold black), FT-Booth September median forecast (blue box), 10%ile/90%ile (grey +), FT-Booth June median forecast (blue box), in bn.Ch.2017 $ SAAR. Source: BEA 2024Q2 advance, FT-Booth September survey, and author’s calculations.
It is not the average or 10% means that suggests a recession. The modal response is for a recession in 2026Q1 onwards, as in the June survey.
Source: FT-Booth.
The proportion of respondents who thought the recession would begin in 2024 fell from 12% to 7%, while the proportion who thought the recession would begin in 2026Q1 or later increased from 52% to 56%.
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