BOFIT: “Russia continued on a moderate growth path in July..”

From BOFIT:

Russia’s economic growth slowed sharply in June, but maintained its slow pace in July. According to the preliminary estimate of Russia’s economic development ministry, annual GDP growth in June and July was around 3%, down from 4.5% in the April-May period. A general index covering Russia’s five manufacturing sectors suggested seasonally adjusted economic output contracted in June, but the contraction stopped in July.

The volume of seasonally adjusted industrial output fell sharply in July, however. Industrial production has fallen in recent months, both in manufacturing and manufacturing industries. Growth appears to have stalled in property and retail sales, with no signs of recovery in July. A rapid increase in agricultural output (5% yoy) supported the overall economy in July.

…

The latest forecasts of major institutions published in July or August see Russia’s GDP growing in the range of 3–3.5% this year and about 1.5% next year. CBR’s latest forecast sees Russia’s GDP growing by 3.5–4 % this year and 0.5–1.5 % next year.

Russian industrial production has fallen in recent months

Sources: Rosstat, CEIC, BOFIT.

Note that as output decreases, the Central Bank of Russia has raised the policy rate from 18% to 19% (as of 9/13).

TradingEconomics tags expected inflation at 12.9% (I don’t know how they calculate this number). Taken at face value, that means real interest rates of 6%.