From a Michigan survey of consumers:
Figure 1: Consumer Sentiment for Democratic/lean Democratic (blue, left scale), Independents (gray, left scale), Republican/lean Republican (red, left scale), SF Fed News Sentiment index (black, right scale). The vertical dashed line where PredictIt’s odds of Harris winning > Trump winning. The Sept observation of the feeling is the beginning; to get a sense of the news, until 9/11. Source: University of Michigan, SF Fed.
As economic news worsened in August, Republican sentiment/leaning fell as expected. However, Democratic sensitivities/Democratic leanings rose. This change seems to be happening when the chances of a Democratic presidential election increase.
Source: PredictIt, accessed 9/15/2024.
The difference in responses is more apparent when looking at expectations, as noted by Goldman Sachs in their 9/13 note.
Figure 2: Consumer expectations for Democratic/lean Democratic (blue, left scale), Independent (gray, left scale), Republican/lean Republican (red, left scale). The vertical dashed line where PredictIt’s odds of Harris winning > Trump winning. Sept’s observation of expectations is the first; to get a sense of the news, on 9/11. Source: University of Michigan.
Since July the increase is 10% of sentiment (the average of current conditions and expectations), and 15% of expectations. Note that the survey has been taken before debate.
A new poll from the FT-Ross School/UMich shows Harris ahead of Trump in terms of economic management views, though the difference is within a margin of error. (FT-Michigan Ross Poll • Survey of 1,002 registered voters conducted Sep 11 – 12; margin of error ±3.1pp. Those who said nothing, both or were unsure were excluded).
Source: FT, 9/16/2024.
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