Cato Center recently released a new survey and report detailing public opinion on trade. The headline number is very encouraging: 63% of Americans want to increase trade with other nations. There are some details worth discussing, but generally Americans don’t have the same level of protection that their politicians do. Again, this is encouraging because it does not suggest the broad deviation based on trade liberalization that has generally characterized the post-World War II era, at least in the public mind.
What’s interesting about these numbers is that they come even though Americans are skeptical about the effects of trade on jobs and wages. According to the survey, about 39% of respondents are concerned about trade reducing the number of jobs, 37% are concerned trade is reducing the number of jobs available, and 39% think trade is reducing wages. Indeed, trading in 80% fear has harmed certain American industries. Despite this concern, the American people reject protection: 2/3rds-4/5ths of America reject tariffs when even a small price increase occurs (the question is asked many times in many ways, thus the scope). Nearly half of Americans (48%) reject price increases requested by businesses or industry groups.
There are many other interesting stories in this report. But these skepticisms represent a major source of development in the early liberal movement. Education appears to be a way to reduce trade skepticism and build broad support. Of course, education can be formal (indeed, one of the graphs in the report finds commercial support is more related to the success of a person in formal education), but with the increase of blogs, YouTube, and other low-cost media, education. can include informal as well.
And that’s why I write. Writing blog posts, op-eds, doing podcasts, and more is an important 21st Century way to convey information and help people overcome their doubts. In trading especially, correcting misconceptions is very difficult. Concepts like comparative advantage are very difficult to understand and explain. But Americans seem to have a good sense of business. I think it’s a worthwhile endeavor as an academic to help Americans understand those gut feelings.
PS: one may reply “If trade is so popular, why is defense a platform for both major parties?” The report answers that as well. Only 1% of respondents say trade and globalization are a “Top Three” political issue for them. The adoption of protectionism by Democrats and Republicans is your classic Public Choice effect: even though it’s not politically popular, the party it deems important is the minority. Politicians can take this position, win votes from special interest groups that strongly support the offer, and be less vulnerable to losing votes. Other issues like inflation, jobs, immigration, etc., all play a big role in voters. Helping them understand the connection between trade and these issues will also help push back against the protectionist movement.
Jon Murphy is an assistant professor of economics at Nicholls State University.
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