Can we use national employment to now get employment in Wisconsin? This effort is being confused with this epidemic. With the release of DWD today, we can test the fit of the model.
Figure 1: Wisconsin NFP employment, August (dark blue), July (light blue) releases, now based on US NFP 2021M07-2024M06 (red), +/- 1 std error bands. Source: BLS, DWD, author’s calculations.
The nowcast is based on this one equation ECM:
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