Here’s a summary of the forecasts and forecasts as of today:
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Summary of Economic Projections median (light green inverted triangle), GDPNow as of 9/18 (light blue square), NY Fed now broadcast 9/20 (red triangle) , FT-Booth from 9/ 14 (blue square), and August median SPF (tan), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. The rates are calculated by multiplying the growth rate by GDP rates, except for the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Source: BEA 2024Q2 2nd Release, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve September 2024 SEP and author’s calculations.
One can see how the nowcasts have evolved by looking at the paths mentioned and the weeks entered.
Figure 2: GDP (bold black), GDPNow as of 9/18 (blue square), as of 9/6 (blue square), NY Fed now as of 9/20 (dark red line) , from 9/13 (light red line), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. The rates are calculated by multiplying the growth rate by the GDP rates. Source: BEA 2024Q2 2nd Release, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, and author’s calculations.
Source link