The RealClearPolitics poll, today, has Harris-Trump 52.3 to 46.3.
Source: RCP, accessed 9/22/2024, ~3pm CT.
PredictIt, the only platform that works in the US, is not included in the RCP estimate now (it wasn’t a few weeks ago), and has Harris-Trump at 58-45, up 13 cents.
Source: PredictIt, accessed 9/22/2024, ~ 3pm CT.
Obviously, not all markets ask the same question, and each platform has different constraints (betting limits, where it works, etc.). Still, this seems like a big gap (6 cents vs. 13 cents).
However, despite the differences in the early days of Harris’s campaign, bets that seem almost equal register the same odds now: 58-45 Harris over Trump, 59-44 for Democrats over Republicans for the White House, 58-42 Harris 47th. The president.
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