The CFNAI and state-level consensus indicators suggest softening at work.
Figure 1: The distribution index of the CFNAI (blue, left scale), and the distribution index of the 3-month change index (tan, right scale). The NBER has defined recession days as shaded in gray. Source: Chicago Fed via FRED, and Philadelphia Fed, NBER.
Note that the CFNAI spread index reading of -0.17 is above the -0.35 recession threshold.
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