Wisconsin GDP Revised Up (a lot!)

Wisconsin GDP grew 4.2% SAAR in Q2. The 2023Q4 figure was increased by 2.7% in the annual update (the corresponding US GDP figure was 1.2%).

Figure 1: Wisconsin GDP, post-revision (light blue), pre-revision (light blue), and Wisconsin Economic Outlook forecast for 2024 (red), by bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, DoR.

As with the national review, a large part of the review appears to be driven by the undercounting of income (see this post). Here is Wisconsin’s disposable income, before and after review.

Figure 1: Gross personal income for Wisconsin, post-revision (bright blue), pre-revision (blue), in billions of dollars, SAAR. Source: BEA.

The gap in personal income in 2023Q4 is 1.9%.

Note that the nearly 3% decline in Wisconsin registered GDP 2022Q4-23Q2 has been removed, replaced by a nearly 0.3% decline in 2022Q4-23Q1. Therefore, the WisGOP announced the recession in 2023 disappears.

Here’s a summary of Wisconsin’s economic indicators, including updated GDP and wages and salaries data, as well as an early NFP benchmark:

Figure 3: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed preliminary NFP benchmark (pink), Public Employment (tan), real wages and salaries, deflated by chained national CPI (blue), GDP (red), coincident index (green) , all in log 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s statistics.


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