Here’s a summary of the key indicators tracked by the NBER’s Business Cycle Index Committee, and SPGMI’s monthly GDP.
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) activity from CES (blue), mean NFP from the first benchmark (blue), employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in -Ch.2017$ (bright green), production and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink ), GDP (green bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 version 3/annual update, S&P Global Market Insights (macroeconomic advisors, IHS Markit) (10/1/2024), and author’s calculations.
Source link