ADP is surprisingly high (143K vs 124K consensus):
I’m not sure what this means, but ADP exceeds the official series, which itself is above the original benchmark.
Figure 1: Private non-farm employment from CES (blue), first benchmark (blue), ADP-Stanford (green), QCEW (red), change from 2023M01, in 000 years, as -QCEW is fixed periodically using X-13 in the logs. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, and author’s calculations.
Figure 2: Private non-farm employment from CES (blue), first benchmark (blue), ADP-Stanford (green), QCEW (red), change from 2023M01, in logs. QCEW is updated periodically using X-13 in the logs. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, and author’s calculations.
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