In Real Time, Does a Decline in the Household Employment Survey Better Reflect the Recession Than One in the Establishment Survey?

Here is the current situation:

Figure 1: Employment of people over 16 (blue, left log scale), non-farm employment (tan, right log scale), both in 1000 years, seasonally adjusted, both as of 10/4/2024. Source: BLS via FRED.

Arrows indicate local peaks. Note that there are two in the home series; the 2023M11 observation is only 2000 more than the 2024M09 count. If we take the September figure as the local peak, there is little suggestion of a peak for the NBER.

And here are the (real-time) charts of the home and establishment series about the recession days of the previous four recessions.

Figure 2: Employment of people over 16 (blue, left log scale), non-farm employment (tan, right log scale), both in 1000 years, seasonally adjusted, both as of 6/7/1990. The NBER has defined recession days as shaded in gray. Source: BLS via ALFRED, NBER.

Figure 3: Employment of people over 16 (blue, left log scale), non-farm employment (tan, right log scale), both in 1000 years, seasonally adjusted, both as of 5/4/2001. The NBER has defined recession days as shaded in gray. Source: BLS via ALFRED, NBER.

Figure 4: Employment of people over 16 (blue, left log scale), non-farm employment (tan, right log scale), both in 1000 years, seasonally adjusted, both as of 2/1/2008. The NBER has defined recession days as shaded in gray. Source: BLS via ALFRED, NBER.

Figure 5: Employment of people over 16 (blue, left log scale), non-farm employment (tan, right log scale), both in 1000 years, seasonally adjusted, both as of 4/3/2020. The NBER has defined recession days as shaded in gray. Source: BLS via ALFRED, NBER.

In real time, the house series turns one month before the establishment in two cases (2001, 2007), and twice the turning times are the same period (1990 and 2020). In reviews, the peaks of the citizen series are moved earlier once (1990), and later two months (2001). The NFP peak has been moved over time once (2001 recession).

I do not think that one should take too much from the current flattery in the housing chain, given the fact that there may be a reduction in the population, which has resulted in employment rates.