Here’s a snapshot of total household income, both nominal and real, with my Q3 nowcasts.
Figure 1: Total home value (blue), now projected for 2024Q3 (blue square), in billions of dollars; The real house value (tan), now distributed in 2024Q3 (brown triangle), in 2022 billion $. The NBER has defined recession days as shaded in gray. Total real rate deflated using Chained CPI, September rate using Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 10/6/2024. Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds by FRED, BLS, Cleveland Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Total normal (real) value is now set to increase by 2.5%(2.3%) q/q in Q3.
I produced a nowcast of net home value by log regression, 2021Q3-2024Q2:
importance = 14.184 + 0.382sp500 + 0.243at home
Adj-R2 = 0.91, SER = 0.013, DW = 2.22, NObs = 12. Bold faces indicate significance at 10% msl, robust HAC errors.
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