From FoxNews. Here’s a snapshot of the indicators tracked by the NBER’s BCDC over the past year. Note that the August numbers are much higher.
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) from CES (blue), employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bright green), trade and sales with trade in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (green bars), all normalized logs to reach 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 version 3/annual update, S&P Global Market Insights (macroeconomic advisors, IHS Markit) (10/1/2024), and author’s calculations.
The NBER is likely to return the recession to begin in July. So far we have the first data for August to use, personal income transferred earlier, and industrial production, and we do not have Q3 GDP (although all Q3 streams show growth). Still, the NBER’s peak for July seems a bit uninteresting to me.
However, Dr. Antoni also announced a recession a little over two years ago.
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