In a recent paper, Antoni and St. Onge (2024) argued that the peak of GDP, measured correctly, was in 2021Q4.
Source: Antony and St. Onge (2024).
As noted in this post, I cannot – despite my best efforts – reproduce their results (when they say the appropriate GDP deflator increased by 40% instead of the BEA’s reported 21.1%, we have 2019Q1). However, if all we produced and consumed (by households, firms, government, and outsiders) was a Big Mac.TM‘s, then one could argue that we have been in decline since 2022 (but we just got out of 2024Q2).
Figure 1: US GDP is expressed in Big Macs (brown, left log scale), and in bn.Ch.2017$ (black log scale, right), both SAAR. The NBER has defined recession days as shaded in gray. Big Mac prices are translated sequentially from semi-annual reported prices. Source: BEA 2024Q2 third release/annual update, The Economist, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Note that Antony and St. Provide donors with a spreadsheet to show how they got their 40% increase in the deflator.
Source link