I keep hearing people like House Speaker Mike Johnson say how fast growth under Trump was. Well, compared to three and a half years ago, I wonder how this can be true. Using the latest BEA data available:
Figure 1: GDP compared to 2021Q1 (blue), compared to 2017Q1 (tan), GDPNow as of 10/18 (light blue square), quarter in successive administrations, all in Ch.2017$ . Source: BEA 2024Q2 third release/annual update, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.
Someone will ask about individual goals. If someone is thinking about how population growth changed during the Trump administration (forced separation of immigrant families and all that stuff), you might think you know the answer, but I’ll show you the individual series:
Figure 2: GDP per capita relative to 2021Q1 (blue), compared to 2017Q1 (tan), GDP per capita Now as of 10/18 (blue square), quarter in successive administrations, all in Ch.2017$ per person. Note: The assumed population growth rate in Q3 is the same as the growth rate in Q2. Source: BEA 2024Q2 third release/annual update, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.
The race was tight before the renewal of the year. Of course, there have been two consecutive quarters of negative growth in 2022. That is no longer true (contra Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni).
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