From TradingEconomics on 10/25:
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment in the US was revised up to 70.5 in October 2024 from 68.9, marking the third consecutive month of increases and reaching the highest level in six months. Both economic conditions (64.9 vs 62.7) and expectations (74.1 vs 72.9) were revised higher. This month’s increase was primarily due to a slight improvement in purchasing conditions for durable goods, partly due to lower interest rates. The upcoming election will exceed consumer expectations. Overall, the share of consumers expecting a Harris presidency fell from 63% last month to 57%.
This is a slightly different take than the NYT had on the story. Here is a picture of the Michigan sentiment index, with the Cummings-Tedeschi correction for the first series, and the implied correction for the last series.
Figure 1: UMich Consumer Sentiment (dark blue, scale left), previous October (gray +), Consumer Sentiment adjusted according to Cummings-Tedeschi (light blue, scale left), Cummings-Tedeschi adds to the last gap compared and the first (blue +), and Shapiro- Sudhof-Wilson Fed News Sentiment (red, right scale), Source: University of Michigan, Cummings-Tedeschi, SF Fed.
If we take the correction literally, this is the picture, compared to the indicators of the collective group (all uncorrected).
Figure 2: UMich Consumer Sentiment (bold black), for Democrats (light blue), for independents (chartreuse), for Republicans (red), Cummings-Tedeschi overall sentiment adds to the last gap compared to the previous one (blue +). Source: University of Michigan, Cummings-Tedeschi, and author’s calculations.
Finally, note that with the Cummings-Tedeschi adjustment, Michigan’s index is more consistent with the Conference Board and Gallup measures.
Figure 3: IU.Michigan Sentiment adjusted to Cummings-Tedeschi April-October (bright black, left scale), Confidence Board (teal, left scale), Gallup Poll (red, right scale). Source: U.Michigan via FRED, Cummings-Tedeschi, Conference Board, Gallup.
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