Finance

Political divisions are increasingly affecting policy-making, but how are they affecting professional decision-making? This paper studies the differences in medical practice between Republican and Democratic […]

A reminder, so the next time you hear about a financial freeze. Figure 1: Public debt as a share of GDP (blue), and share of […]

Income Inequality Robert Kuttner and Tyler Cowen in conversation, moderated by Jeff Greenfield NYC, November 17, here’s the link. Posted in 92nd St. Y appeared […]

As of yesterday COB: Figure 1: Ten-year breakeven (blue), five-year breakeven (red), in %. Source: Treasury via FRED. Figure 2: 10yr-2yr Treasury term spread (blue […]

Alex Tabarrok has a great piece on Marginal Revolution this morning explaining why he has confidence in the prediction markets. It is very difficult to […]

1. The returns to Naloxone. 2. A resort in the Philippines has the world’s largest chicken-shaped structure. 3. World’s most powerful man and bird breeder […]

Lars Svensson has argued that monetary policymakers should “target the forecast”, meaning that they should set their policy in an area that is expected to […]

Yves here. I feel like I’m overdue to comment on Trump’s win, but there is a tsunami of commentary about it and I wish I […]

Prediction markets predicted the outcome of the election more accurately and faster than polls or other forecasting methods, just as expected from decades of research. […]

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